It’s just a matter of days until the nation decides which set of noses will be back in the public trough and which ones will be stuck in the Sits Vac, and one thing’s for certain… No, wait. Nothing’s for certain.
However, help is at hand with a newly commissioned WWNews Election Poll, which has just arrived back from the pollsters we commissioned it from. And the results are truly surprising.
Because up until now, other polls commissioned by other media organisations have all predicted the same sort of outcome: either National or Labour will form a government through the process of coalition, from the Latin word meaning no likelihood of doing anyone else any good.
On one side we might have Labour, the Greens and TPM, with Opportunity making up the numbers. On the other side we have National, NZ First and ACT, who worked together so well last term there’s no reason to expect anything different. Winston might need more frequent naps, but that’s about it.
Unless… and it’s a big Unless. What if the minor parties developed some traction between now and Saturday? Enough votes that, added together, they could have a huge impact on the result?
That’s exactly what our poll shows. It’s huge. And we’re not just talking about the size of the Excel file. Local political researchers, pollsters and statistical analysts Frognostics Inc. have come up with an intriguing set of numbers that could change the way we think about opinion polls.
The boffins at Frognostics predict that if there’s a seismic shift in voting patterns, the very minor parties could form a coalition, forcing the Nats, Labour, the Greens, TPM, ACT and the rest onto the opposition benches and leaving the minnows to govern the country themselves.
Stranger things have happened, according to Frognostics CEO Clare Foyins, although she declines to expand on the theme. “Suffice to say, our polling and statistical analysis is robust, cutting edge and slightly magical,” she tells WWNews. “And it shows that a swing away from the major parties could have major repercussions.”
“There are currently nine minor parties offering candidates in this election,” Ms Foyins says. “If they each took 5.8% of the party vote – which is not beyond the realms of fantasy, although quite close to its perimeter fence – they would get seven seats each, 63 in total. That’s a majority with seats to spare.”
And there are already several likely alliances among the minnows, she says. “There’s what we like to call the ‘freedom’ bloc: NZ Loyal, Vision New Zealand and NZ Outdoors & Freedom, already orbiting the same ideological galaxy of sovereignty and anti-establishment sentiment, although with different views on whose freedom, and from what.
“We also have the Animal Justice Party and NZ Outdoors & Freedom, who both hold strong views on hunting, from opposite ends of the rifle. That’s what our MPs thrive on, isn’t it – the cut and thrust of politics, along with a bit of slashing and stabbing.”
Frognostics’ research is not infallible, Ms Foyins cautions. “Political polling is not an exact science,” she admits. “In fact, it’s not really science at all. Phone a few people up, make some notes, consult the I Ching and the Tarot, and see what Freddo over there in the fishtank has for morning tea. Throw it all into AI for a spreadsheet and a coloured header and hey presto – the media has another front page they don’t have to write.”
And for that WWNews is especially grateful, considering Frognostics moved into the office space next door only last week and is giving us first dibs on all their content in exchange for a deal on parking and access to the unisex loo in the photocopier room.
Just a note: while Freddo and some of the party names are real, the rest is all made up. Any similarity to actual polls, pollsters and people is entirely fictitious, in the name of satire if not the achievement of it.